Thought Leadership

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter Fourth Quarter 2015

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter Fourth Quarter 2015

By John Hathaway on January 12, 2016

During 2015 gold bullion declined 10.4 percent, to $1061.4, while gold mining stocks (basis XAU Philadelphia Stock Exchange Index of Gold and Silver Stocks) declined 33.4 percent. 2015 was the third consecutive year of declines in the precious metals complex, a correction from all-time highs that appears overextended and ripe for a trend reversal. We …

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Gold, Gold Mining Shares, and QE

Gold, Gold Mining Shares, and QE

By John Hathaway on June 13, 2012

The protracted correction in gold and precious metals stocks that began in September 2011 appears to have ended.  Our conclusion is based on historically reliable gauges of sentiment, valuation and technical factors.  (We will publish the specific readings on these gauges with our second quarter investment letter on June 30.) This basing, in our view, …

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Monetary Tectonics

Monetary Tectonics

By John Hathaway on November 24, 2014

The “strength” in the dollar appears to have been the proximate cause of the recent selloff in gold. The rise in the dollar index (DXY) is taken by most to mean that the dollar is actually strong. The chart below shows the inverse correlation between the DXY and the dollar gold price. This discussion will …

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Tocqueville Gold Strategy Update

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Update

By John Hathaway on April 15, 2013

Gold bullion prices have been subjected to a cleverly orchestrated bear raid in our opinion. Selling of paper Comex contracts on Friday, April 12th, and Monday, April 15th, totaled 1 million contracts, exceeding global annual gold production by 12%. The attack succeeded when the technical support in the low $1500’s/oz. easily gave way and led …

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Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists

Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists

By John Hathaway on January 7, 2016

An acute shortage of readily marketable physical gold is developing that we believe will deepen in years to come. This possibility seems to be unrecognized by those who are short the gold market through paper contracts. The relentless dumping of synthetic or paper gold contracts since 2011 by speculators in Western financial markets has caused …

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