Thought Leadership

P Flow 2nd attempt

By BigDrop_Contributor_Test on June 19, 2017

The Financial Markets and Gold

The three ratios are the CAPE ratio, the Q‐ratio, and the Buffett Indicator. The CAPE ratio, devised by Robert Shiller, is the ratio of the S&P Index to trailing 10‐year average earnings. The Q‐ratio removes financial corporations and measures the market value of non‐financial corporate equities outstanding divided by net worth. The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of corporate market value to GNP. [Berg’s study can be found athttp://financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRbr-2015-02-quicksilver-markets.pdf]

While valuation metrics are interesting in terms of measuring potential risk, they are less useful in terms of exact timing. Conditions of extreme  overvaluation or undervaluation can persist over long periods. However, there are signs that suggest a turning point is approaching. These include the extremity of position exposure by speculative capital and weakening fundamentals. Consider this:

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It appears to me that the U.S. stock market is cruisin’ for a bruisin’. Valuations are stretched, sentiment is at an extreme (too bullish), liquidity is slowly leaking out, there’s no QE, the economy is sinking, the strong dollar is killing our multinational corporations’ exports, and earnings expectations for 2015 are being slashed. S&P earnings estimates for 2015 at the start of the fourth quarter were $137. The estimates are now $117. That means that the P/E ratios, already high, are heading higher as the estimates for 2015 are cut (Fred Hickey, High Tech Strategist, March 4, 2015).

The chart above shows that hedge funds are shorting gold at the highest level since 2006, which is as far back as these data go. What this chart reflects is paper or “synthetic” gold. Financial institutions create synthetic gold for macro investors, such as hedge funds and high-frequency traders. In many cases, these gold positions are simply an extension of credit to traders who do not possess the actual bullion. Physical gold does not change hands, and contracts are settled in the vast majority of instances for cash. The price gyrations and sentiment for synthetic gold reflect views on non-gold matters such as BLS jobs reports and other economic data releases, FOMC statements, anticipated Fed policy, statements by various Fed officials, and geopolitical headlines, to name a few examples. In other words, the synthetic gold price is a composite of financial market sentiment.

Synthetic gold is a deep and active market (think “casino”) that provides significant capacity for macro traders to establish bullish or bearish positions on matters totally unrelated to the supply-and-demand fundamentals for physical metal. As noted by Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, the market’s appraisal of gold is the inverse of investor confidence in the institution of central banking. To us, the above chart synchronizes perfectly with the valuation measures highlighted in Mr. Berg’s study, and supports our view that the prospects for the dollar gold price are closely tied, inversely, to investor sentiment.

The supply and demand flows of physical gold tell an entirely different story than the negative one portrayed by the synthetic market. Gold supply has peaked out for years to come barring higher prices, while demand shows healthy growth. The mining industry will not and cannot finance new gold mines in the current price environment. We expect global gold production to decline beyond 2015 in the absence of sustained higher prices. Demand for gold from central bank purchases, China, and India exceeds current gold production by a substantial margin. According to the World Gold Council, over the past five years, global gold demand was 20,315 metric tonnes, compared to cumulative global mine production of 14,504 metric tonnes. Persistent demand that exceeds gold production by 40 percent without rising prices is largely explained by divestment from Western hands, such as gold ETFs and other removals from gold stored in vaults in London, New York, and other financial centers. Based on this view, the market for physical gold can only be described as taut and robust. It would tighten significantly if warehoused gold stocks reached a point of depletion or if holders of remaining stocks refused to sell, which typically happens whenever confidence in financial assets falters and demand for physical gold spikes. The chart below shows cumulative consumption of gold by the Chinese public of 8,475 tonnes since 2009. Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals do not, however, reflect possible purchases by the Chinese central bank or other official sector entities. The Chinese last updated official gold reserves since 2009 and it seems all but certain that they have continued to accumulate bullion since then. It seems likely that their secrecy on this matter is designed to take advantage of weak gold prices caused by Western divestment.

Similar views are expressed by a growing number of respected voices:

We believe that confidence in central banking is the principal explanation for the current lofty valuations of financial assets and the corresponding low esteem for gold. That confidence, in our opinion, will dissipate if investment gains of the past five years begin to turn into losses. As noted last year by Elliott Management’s Paul Singer, “Our feeling is that confidence, especially when it is unjustified, is quite a thin veneer. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors.”  We believe that ZIRP and financial repression have skewed the investment thought process, short-circuiting critical analysis via the seduction of high nominal returns. The only way for this to continue, in our opinion, is for central bankers to advance ever more preposterous explanations for their policies and practices against what we expect to be a never-ending backdrop of stagnant or sinking global economic activity. Nobody, in our opinion, can predict the inflection point in confidence. The absurdities should collapse under their own weight.

As noted in our previous commentary (1/15/15), we believe that dollar strength is a precursor of systemic weakness. We thus see little virtue in the relative strength of the US currency, which, in our opinion, signifies capital flight from risk: “When the currencies in which investments are denominated experience historic levels of volatility (i.e., the euro has dropped by 20 percent against the dollar since last July), a new dimension enters the investment landscape. The unstable currency regime has created a highly unstable investment environment that is placing capital at risk” (The Credit Strategist, 4/1/15). As noted by analyst Paul Mylchreest, volatility in currency markets has historically led to destabilizing flows in speculative capital, which ultimately affects other financial assets (1873, 1929, and 1987).

We agree with Mr. Singer that a loss of confidence can and will lead to a severe, sudden, and simultaneous decline across a number of markets and sectors. Moreover, we do not believe that confidence in the practitioners of 21st-century monetary policy is deserved. Modern-day central bankers consist largely of academics with little practical business experience. Their policies have not generated growth, and they have in our opinion exacerbated systemic risk. Market expectations for economic growth seem destined for repeated disappointment. In our view, the coming reconciliation of illusion to reality promises to be epic, one in which ownership of real, not financial, assets, is essential. We have always believed that gold is the most liquid, easily acquired real asset with a legacy of protecting capital during periods of financial instability. That it has become discredited in Western capital markets speaks for itself. It is a message for contrarians to heed.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Monitor [PDF]
John Hathaway

Senior Portfolio Manager
© Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.
April 7, 2015

This article reflects the views of the author as of the date or dates cited and may change at any time. The information should not be construed as investment advice. No representation is made concerning the accuracy of cited data, nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion will be realized.

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