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    Thought Leadership

    Insights from Tocqueville

    Trump’s Victory: What Does it Mean for Gold?

    Trump’s Victory: What Does it Mean for Gold?

    By John Hathaway on November 21, 2016

    In our view, the systemic risks that existed prior to the presidential election have not suddenly vanished. Most important among these is a massive bond-market bubble. Close behind, equity valuations remain at historically extreme levels. How the new administration deals with these vexing issues, assuming that it even begins to comprehend them, is a complete …

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    Letter to the Clients

    By Robert Kleinschmidt on January 27, 2017

    Dear Clients, Now that the elections are mercifully behind us, the markets should be able to focus on fundamentals, which are, as of this writing, neither terribly positive nor terribly negative. Over the next 12 months, we would expect, so long as U.S. growth continues, that interest rates will rise gradually at first, but then, …

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    Reflections on the Past as Prologue

    By Joseph Piropato on January 3, 2018

    At the beginning of a New Year there is a tendency, particularly among Wall Street prognosticators, to review the recent past and extrapolate its trends into the near future. At this time twelve months ago  many were projecting a continuation of slow but steady growth for the economy, perhaps a little better than that due …

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    Gold: A Case of Extremes

    By John Hathaway on August 22, 2018

    Intense liquidation of gold mining shares during the week of August 13, 2018 could, in our opinion, mark a trading bottom, if not the terminal point in the lengthy consolidation of the sector since the bottom of December 2015.  To support our view, we note: -Extreme bearish positioning of COMEX gold speculators; -Extreme bullish positioning …

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    Investing for the Long Term: A Word on Performance

    By Paul Kleinschmidt on November 5, 2018

    We live in a short-term, short-attention-span world dominated by relentless news cycles. In few places is this more apparent than within financial circles, where these powerful trends have combined to increase the collective anxiety of the investor community. Performance has come to be measured in days and weeks; returns are examined monthly and usually without …

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