Dear Clients, Now that the elections are mercifully behind us, the markets should be able to focus on fundamentals, which are, as of this writing, neither terribly positive nor terribly negative. Over the next 12 months, we would expect, so long as U.S. growth continues, that interest rates will rise gradually at first, but then, …
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In our view, the systemic risks that existed prior to the presidential election have not suddenly vanished. Most important among these is a massive bond-market bubble. Close behind, equity valuations remain at historically extreme levels. How the new administration deals with these vexing issues, assuming that it even begins to comprehend them, is a complete …
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Over the past few decades, private equity has gained cachet among investors much the way hedge funds did in an earlier era. Many of today’s investors believe that private equity represents a new and superior asset class. But it is neither. Far from new, it is the oldest form of equity investing. As for superiority, …
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A. Keep Calm and Carry On The tumult in global equity markets has been so sudden and so violent that it has left many observers breathless. “What in the world,” many investors want to know, “is going on?” The answer? No one really knows. This admission is not a bad thing. Among other salutary characteristics, …
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During 2015 gold bullion declined 10.4 percent, to $1061.4, while gold mining stocks (basis XAU Philadelphia Stock Exchange Index of Gold and Silver Stocks) declined 33.4 percent. 2015 was the third consecutive year of declines in the precious metals complex, a correction from all-time highs that appears overextended and ripe for a trend reversal. We …
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