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Insights from Tocqueville

Gold: A Case of Extremes

By John Hathaway on August 22, 2018

Intense liquidation of gold mining shares during the week of August 13, 2018 could, in our opinion, mark a trading bottom, if not the terminal point in the lengthy consolidation of the sector since the bottom of December 2015.  To support our view, we note: -Extreme bearish positioning of COMEX gold speculators; -Extreme bullish positioning …

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Tocqueville Gold Strategy Second Quarter 2018 Investor Letter

By John Hathaway on July 16, 2018

There has been an epic liquidation of speculative long positions in gold over the past two years.  According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, long positions in gold held by hedge funds and other large-scale speculators declined from 893 tonnes in July 2016 to only 13 tonnes at the end of June 2018 [As …

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Tocqueville Gold Strategy First Quarter 2018 Investor Letter

By John Hathaway on April 4, 2018

Gold’s Dot Plot The Fed dot plot, published after every Fed meeting, shows where each of the 16 members of the FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) expect interest rates to be at the end of the various calendar years displayed, as well as the peak level of rates upon completion of the tightening cycle.  From …

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Tocqueville Gold Strategy Fourth Quarter 2017 Investor Letter

By John Hathaway on January 3, 2018

Gold: Connecting the Dots Gold rose 11.63% in US dollar terms in 2017, an excellent year for the metal.  More important, it has been the top-performing asset since the dawn of radical monetary experimentation by world central banks in 2000 (better than equities, bonds, and other key commodities).  The US dollar, anointed “King Dollar” by …

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Reflections on the Past as Prologue

By Joseph Piropato on January 3, 2018

At the beginning of a New Year there is a tendency, particularly among Wall Street prognosticators, to review the recent past and extrapolate its trends into the near future. At this time twelve months ago  many were projecting a continuation of slow but steady growth for the economy, perhaps a little better than that due …

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